The Liar's Dividend: Why Politicians Claiming "Fake News" Get a Boost

New research shows that falsely claiming that a scandal was misinformation or a hit job by one's political opponents is an effective strategy in broken political systems, but with unexpected twists.

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Guilty of 34 felonies. Twice impeached. Found liable for sexual assault. Banned from doing business in New York. Tried to overturn an election to illegally seize power. Incited a violent attack on the US Capitol.

And still supported by more than 40 percent of the American population.

More bafflingly, Donald Trump’s felony convictions have made millions of his supporters even more likely to vote for him—and unleashed a reported wave of $53 million in donations to Trump’s campaign.¹

How is that possible?

Unless you live offline in a cave—(seems like a good move, can I join?)—you will have no doubt read analyses about the specifics of Trump’s trial in New York, but none of them answer the key underlying question, which is this:

How do politicians who lie about their own scandals successfully consolidate political support?

This isn’t a question specific to Trump. Across the globe, politicians are increasingly evading accountability by falsely claiming that their scandals are invented by their political opponents, fabrications that amount to a partisan hit job. Why are those lies so effective? Why do people fall for them? Why are some countries more prone to letting terrible politicians off the hook than others? And how do our brains deceive us more or less depending on what kind of information we receive about a politician behaving badly?

Well, now we have some answers: I can bring you fresh research—hot off the presses—which helps to answer those questions. It introduces a crucial concept that should be more widely known in our political discourse: the Liar’s Dividend, which refers to how politicians are able to gain political support after they falsely claim that their scandalous behavior is misinformation or “fake news.”

What is the Liar’s Dividend and how does it work?