Why does 40%+ of America still support Trump?

The former president was just ordered to pay $83 million for defaming a woman that he sexually assaulted. Why doesn't that—or his criminal behavior, racism, and authoritarianism—reduce his popularity?

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Last week, Donald Trump was ordered to pay $83 million in damages to E. Jean Carroll. But let’s state it plainly: the leading Republican contender in the next American presidential election has to pay a huge financial settlement for defaming a woman after he was found liable for raping her.

This news will, if anything, make it more likely that he will become the Republican candidate on the ballot in November. And he might still win.

How is that possible?

It’s the question I get asked most often in Britain by people who are perplexed by this bizarre dynamic. It has baffled pundits and political analysts for years. Trump has sometimes been referred to “Teflon Don,” because scandals that destroy other politicians never stick to him. But the pundits and analysts fixate on the wrong question. They ask “How does Trump do it?” The better question for Americans to ask is: “What does Trump’s apparent invincibility tell us about ourselves?”

I: Hypotheses

There are, to my mind, four main hypotheses that help explain why scandals don’t destroy Trump. I like coining names for phenomena I observe, so I’ve coined these:

1. The Deplorables Hypothesis — Named after the infamous remark made by Hillary Clinton, this theory suggests that many of his supporters are just awful people. According to this theory, they are deplorable and that’s why they don’t care that he does deplorable things. Misogynists don’t mind that he sexually assaulted someone; racists don’t care that he’s racist; authoritarian voters want a Republican dictator to take charge.

2. The Coastal Elites Hypothesis — This theory suggests that Trump’s supporters do care a bit about his behavior, but they care more about how much they hate coastal elites, whom they see, rightly or wrongly, as the source of every frustration in their lives. Their votes for Trump aren’t to endorse his behavior, but to throw a hand grenade into the establishment, whether they be Democrats or RINOs (what Trump disciples call “Republicans in Name Only”). This also might help explain the rural rise of Trumpism, in which Democratic support in rural areas has collapsed.

3. The Tribalism Hypothesis — Perhaps it’s not that they like Trump, but that they hate Democrats. Republicans vote for Republican candidates and Trump is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee, so might as well join the ranks now.

4. The Mass Delusion Hypothesis — The final hypothesis suggests that Trump voters aren’t so much awful people, but that they don’t believe that he did awful things — that he’s the victim of a series of plots against him — and that the Democrats are trying to destroy the country, engage in sex trafficking of children (QAnon), and rig elections to stay in power.

There is some truth in all four. The coalition that could elect Trump in November has voters who are best explained by each of the four typologies. But I suspect that just two of the four hypotheses explain the majority of the MAGA movement’s success.