We are the only species that has the capacity to make ourselves extinct. But courting that risk is not inevitable; it is a choice, and it's not too late to make the right one.
This right here makes the yearly subscription worthwhile (it was already innately valuable but this one article is worth an entire year). Thank you for making it public so all my cybersecurity and ethics students can read it 😊
That’s so kind of you - you make it possible! And thanks very much for reading. I hesitated to publish this because some of it is depressing, but peril also produces opportunity if you’re honest about it and I hope it spurs more thinking around the topic. Welcome to the community!
Brian, this is a wonderful post. I really don’t care much for Substack as an authoring platform, but the flipside is that there is a lot of fine content offered from it. Yours is consistently right at the top. Interestingly, I ran into an article in Scientific American Speaking to the chirality problem. It cited and linked the science magazine stuff. Relatedly, I am now reading The Demon in the Machine.“ I posted about it on blue sky. Alan Zundel responded “The title is not giving away anything.” To which I replied
___
“🤣 Tangentially anthropomorph-ish thought experiment-ish metaphorical critter obtusely “revealing” the 2nd law of thermodynamics nexus coupling entropy & info theory— in a ‘splain-it-to-me-like-I’m-6 effort to establish the non-physicality of “information.” (elan vitale?)”
“I shit you not. 🍷🍷 Cheers.”
___
LOL. Alan was my favorite grad school professor back in the mid-90s.
Ahhh… “risk.” I lived in Las Vegas for 21 years. The reason there’s 2 million people there rather than 20,000 is because people cannot compute “expected value.“ (“expected value“ also explains fear of flying to me: if the “payoff“ is fully existential, then it doesn’t matter how small the “probability“ is.)
I’m left-handed, as was my father, and his father. But I’m all confused. I write left-handed, play guitar, bass, drums, and keyboard, right handed, switch hit in baseball (better power,righty, better eye lefty), throw a ball lefty, swing a tennis racket, lefty, golf club righty (I hate golf)…
This post of yours has made my day. Back to the Demon in the Machine.
Weirdly, for me the most depressing part of your amazing essay may well have been intended as the most hopeful. You are 100% right that wisdom and perhaps survival lie in demanding leaders take the threats more seriously, and courageous politicians create powerful agencies with teeth. I suspect you see why this hurts.
I considered adding a footnote there: in the immediate future, the initial spurt of leadership must come from Europe, most likely. Japan could play a role, and if China wanted to be serious about managing these risks, they would start with things like the BSL-4 labs. But I’m not holding my breath for the US or China to take the lead anytime soon…
I struggle to see how we can protect ourselves from a tech with low barriers to entry and systemic consequences. Any bio weapon would qualify. Your mirror microbes thought experiment (for now) is case in point. I will read Churchill’s essay on preemptive suicide - sounds jolly.
This essay converted me to a paid subscriber. Between this newsletter and your book Fluke, I can officially say I’m a fan. Keep up the great research & writing!
This was a fun and fascinating read, though I confess you lost me at the DNA-RNA level Still, I think I made the right conclusion: we have a lot of creative ways to wipe ourselves out.
You and Oliver Burkeman should get along great ! We're all gonna die--but what an interesting ride!
( I am quite curious about: ".5 Fun fact: I was left-handed until I switched as a child."
Did you decide? Or were you made to switch? I ask as someone who was made right-handed, rather unsuccessfully: I write, and hold a spoon or fork with my 'correct hand'; everything else is done left handed. I tried, without success, to become ambidextrous. How did your/their decision on'handedness' affect you?)
Wow! Once more a vast expanse of knowledge to peruse and ponder. I so look forward to your articles. They are a wonderful diversion from the political and related societal ugliness that permeates damn near everything else. Many thanks.
Well, that was certainly depressing, especially given what’s going on here in the US and the world, fostered by disinformation and religious zealots. There is a not insignificant contingent of people, here and elsewhere, who actually want to bring about the end of the world and usher in the “second coming.” So, keeping pocket nukes out of their hands would be good for a start. I like your comment above about leadership from places like Europe and Japan. I still absolutely love your writing and learn so much from it, even if today it makes me want to put my head in the oven. Just kidding. Also, if you need me, I’ll be over reading about “AI and the paper clip problem.” So many rabbit holes, so little time. 😉
Pandora’s box was opened long ago, and the greatest animal threat to a man is indeed another man, and women try their best to protect and nurture us. Unless, of course, there is an opportunity to rid herself of an unnecessary man.
Great essay thanks. I always learn something (usually many things) from reading your work. Have a great holiday! All the best, John.
This right here makes the yearly subscription worthwhile (it was already innately valuable but this one article is worth an entire year). Thank you for making it public so all my cybersecurity and ethics students can read it 😊
Thank you, Brian. This is so interesting and it sprouted all kinds of questions and associations in my mind.
I love your writing and I just bought a subscription so I could tell you so.
That’s so kind of you - you make it possible! And thanks very much for reading. I hesitated to publish this because some of it is depressing, but peril also produces opportunity if you’re honest about it and I hope it spurs more thinking around the topic. Welcome to the community!
Thanks Brian. Another valuable lesson in history and science and the many, many lurking unknowns.
https://youtu.be/gp5JCrSXkJY
Brian, this is a wonderful post. I really don’t care much for Substack as an authoring platform, but the flipside is that there is a lot of fine content offered from it. Yours is consistently right at the top. Interestingly, I ran into an article in Scientific American Speaking to the chirality problem. It cited and linked the science magazine stuff. Relatedly, I am now reading The Demon in the Machine.“ I posted about it on blue sky. Alan Zundel responded “The title is not giving away anything.” To which I replied
___
“🤣 Tangentially anthropomorph-ish thought experiment-ish metaphorical critter obtusely “revealing” the 2nd law of thermodynamics nexus coupling entropy & info theory— in a ‘splain-it-to-me-like-I’m-6 effort to establish the non-physicality of “information.” (elan vitale?)”
“I shit you not. 🍷🍷 Cheers.”
___
LOL. Alan was my favorite grad school professor back in the mid-90s.
Ahhh… “risk.” I lived in Las Vegas for 21 years. The reason there’s 2 million people there rather than 20,000 is because people cannot compute “expected value.“ (“expected value“ also explains fear of flying to me: if the “payoff“ is fully existential, then it doesn’t matter how small the “probability“ is.)
I’m left-handed, as was my father, and his father. But I’m all confused. I write left-handed, play guitar, bass, drums, and keyboard, right handed, switch hit in baseball (better power,righty, better eye lefty), throw a ball lefty, swing a tennis racket, lefty, golf club righty (I hate golf)…
This post of yours has made my day. Back to the Demon in the Machine.
Weirdly, for me the most depressing part of your amazing essay may well have been intended as the most hopeful. You are 100% right that wisdom and perhaps survival lie in demanding leaders take the threats more seriously, and courageous politicians create powerful agencies with teeth. I suspect you see why this hurts.
I considered adding a footnote there: in the immediate future, the initial spurt of leadership must come from Europe, most likely. Japan could play a role, and if China wanted to be serious about managing these risks, they would start with things like the BSL-4 labs. But I’m not holding my breath for the US or China to take the lead anytime soon…
Yes. Europe and Japan might get the ball rolling. All the best, 🌿🪷
I hope I die before you stop writing your fantastic essays. I'd miss you.
Haha well I’ll give you ten points for melodrama but that’s very flattering! Thank you!
Melodrama is fun :-)
I struggle to see how we can protect ourselves from a tech with low barriers to entry and systemic consequences. Any bio weapon would qualify. Your mirror microbes thought experiment (for now) is case in point. I will read Churchill’s essay on preemptive suicide - sounds jolly.
It’s worth reading Bostrom’s entire article, but yes, the easy nukes scenario, if it comes to pass, would be very difficult to control.
This essay converted me to a paid subscriber. Between this newsletter and your book Fluke, I can officially say I’m a fan. Keep up the great research & writing!
This was a fun and fascinating read, though I confess you lost me at the DNA-RNA level Still, I think I made the right conclusion: we have a lot of creative ways to wipe ourselves out.
You and Oliver Burkeman should get along great ! We're all gonna die--but what an interesting ride!
Wonderful essay; hopeful essay.
( I am quite curious about: ".5 Fun fact: I was left-handed until I switched as a child."
Did you decide? Or were you made to switch? I ask as someone who was made right-handed, rather unsuccessfully: I write, and hold a spoon or fork with my 'correct hand'; everything else is done left handed. I tried, without success, to become ambidextrous. How did your/their decision on'handedness' affect you?)
I think I was encouraged by my parents but I have no recollection of it. I switched when I was pretty young!
Wow! Once more a vast expanse of knowledge to peruse and ponder. I so look forward to your articles. They are a wonderful diversion from the political and related societal ugliness that permeates damn near everything else. Many thanks.
Well, that was certainly depressing, especially given what’s going on here in the US and the world, fostered by disinformation and religious zealots. There is a not insignificant contingent of people, here and elsewhere, who actually want to bring about the end of the world and usher in the “second coming.” So, keeping pocket nukes out of their hands would be good for a start. I like your comment above about leadership from places like Europe and Japan. I still absolutely love your writing and learn so much from it, even if today it makes me want to put my head in the oven. Just kidding. Also, if you need me, I’ll be over reading about “AI and the paper clip problem.” So many rabbit holes, so little time. 😉
Pandora’s box was opened long ago, and the greatest animal threat to a man is indeed another man, and women try their best to protect and nurture us. Unless, of course, there is an opportunity to rid herself of an unnecessary man.