As human creativity comes under threat from artificial intelligence, we're unilaterally disarming, as the creative industries avoid risk and herd toward guaranteed, boring hits: the surefire mediocre.
Depressing although eloquently written... Proud to say I haven’t seen any of those films or read any of those books - and will definitely watch Brian and Charles. Thank you.
Brian, you should ended the opening paragraph with, “kids! Get off my lawn!” I wish I could find something to disagree with but unfortunately you have hit on something that is not only endemic to cultural realms such as books, music, and film, but also more serious and even academic pursuits.
I see two very distinct kinds of creativity. The first is in the arts as you address here and something in which my 12 year old daughter excels. Art, story telling are things she is discovering and I want to foster as it is a talent that seems to be in short supply these days. The second is the ability to take seeming disparate pieces of information to find connections and patterns that heretofore have been otherwise hidden. I personally have made a career out of the latter as an energy economist with a history background touching other disciplines such as operations research and power systems engineering. I see much of that in your work and writing and that is perhaps why I continue to be drawn to your Substack and Twitter. It is always a learning experience for me (at 55 I learn everyday).
We see how AI type thinking, pre AI, has pervaded a academic economics in many places. The sure way to get tenure is to recycle old material, with some incremental advance, to get published. Risk taking only happens now after one gets tenure, and then what incentive is there to do that?
I see it in the energy industry on a regular basis in hiring decisions, policies, and regulatory matters. Stick the “safe” route, even if we know it does not work, because at least you can keep your job and positions reputationally. Engineers then try to play economist or historian or lawyer or computational expert. Not that it cannot work with a well rounded experience, but such well rounded experience is discouraged and people get pigeonholed into a certain role and never can see the bigger picture. Liberal arts education and background is now actively discouraged despite the fact a good Liberal Arts education fosters the creativity that I have thrived upon. (I have undergrad degree in history and Econ with am emphasis is military, diplomatic, and Russian/Soviet history...the the wall fell).
The conclusion to all this is AI is just an extension of thinking and biases that already exist in the world today and all AI will do is cement this thinking and be unable to problem solve as the world changes, or create solutions to evolving problems. AI is simply not capable of the critical thinking required in a world full of complexity that will require thinking outside the box creatively. Now kids, get off my lawn!
You rock, Brian. “if you chase the Surefire Mediocre, there is no risk.” Yeah, I guess, depending on your operational, definition of “risk.“ My sorely missed late dear friend, Joey T, was the chief data scientist at Starbucks headquarters in Seattle. He woulda dug this piece. And, again, I recommend to you the new book “Wicked Problems.“ There’s some stuff in there about multivariant regression analytics that makes me laugh like hell. I did a five-year stint in subprime credit risk analytics. I know a thing or two about modeling for the “surefire mediocre“ demographic, lol. We made successive record profits every year I was there. It was insane. I finally had to quit and went back to healthcare analytics. The subprime thing was just too jive. to wit: https://bgladd.blogspot.com/2008/12/tranche-warfare.html … by the way, if you want to check out the total opposite of surefire mediocre, google “Jacob Collier.“ Bring a snickers, you’re gonna be a while.
One interesting take from David Marx on recent cultural dullness and repetition is the effect of low barrier to entry of culture due to internet etc. In some senses this has driven elites to remove themselves from status signalling via taking up new ideas. If anyone can access the signals of cultural status they (old money, professional class etc) are more likely to (unfortunately) return to financial signifiers. Correlation isn’t causation but at the same time of this cultural stasis we have seen a significant increase of inequality.
One other concept is the notion of Omnivore “Hypermodern liberalism and cosmopolitanism thus led to omnivoreism and poptivism- and even a detente w capitalism, as long as the spoils flow to the right people....cont....As w any value system, omnivores contains inconsistencies. The refusal to erect fences verse toward monoculture.”
He also gets into some deconstruction of Kant on aesthetics which highlights the break between the art in itself and it’s cultural & status seeking signifiers.
There is always hope for humans, it’s our apparent failures that drive creativity as much as the successes be it financial etc Identity politics need not be something that necessarily divides us to a miserable Hobbesian dystopia with a few tech bros and their VC handmaidens looking for the payday. When humanity itself and our life on this planet is at risk the next cultural movement might emerge and bring us together in a way we haven’t considered. I live in hope and am keeping eyes and ears open.
Depressing although eloquently written... Proud to say I haven’t seen any of those films or read any of those books - and will definitely watch Brian and Charles. Thank you.
Brian, you should ended the opening paragraph with, “kids! Get off my lawn!” I wish I could find something to disagree with but unfortunately you have hit on something that is not only endemic to cultural realms such as books, music, and film, but also more serious and even academic pursuits.
I see two very distinct kinds of creativity. The first is in the arts as you address here and something in which my 12 year old daughter excels. Art, story telling are things she is discovering and I want to foster as it is a talent that seems to be in short supply these days. The second is the ability to take seeming disparate pieces of information to find connections and patterns that heretofore have been otherwise hidden. I personally have made a career out of the latter as an energy economist with a history background touching other disciplines such as operations research and power systems engineering. I see much of that in your work and writing and that is perhaps why I continue to be drawn to your Substack and Twitter. It is always a learning experience for me (at 55 I learn everyday).
We see how AI type thinking, pre AI, has pervaded a academic economics in many places. The sure way to get tenure is to recycle old material, with some incremental advance, to get published. Risk taking only happens now after one gets tenure, and then what incentive is there to do that?
I see it in the energy industry on a regular basis in hiring decisions, policies, and regulatory matters. Stick the “safe” route, even if we know it does not work, because at least you can keep your job and positions reputationally. Engineers then try to play economist or historian or lawyer or computational expert. Not that it cannot work with a well rounded experience, but such well rounded experience is discouraged and people get pigeonholed into a certain role and never can see the bigger picture. Liberal arts education and background is now actively discouraged despite the fact a good Liberal Arts education fosters the creativity that I have thrived upon. (I have undergrad degree in history and Econ with am emphasis is military, diplomatic, and Russian/Soviet history...the the wall fell).
The conclusion to all this is AI is just an extension of thinking and biases that already exist in the world today and all AI will do is cement this thinking and be unable to problem solve as the world changes, or create solutions to evolving problems. AI is simply not capable of the critical thinking required in a world full of complexity that will require thinking outside the box creatively. Now kids, get off my lawn!
Humans will never evolve until a sufficient mix of risk adversity and sacrifice is needed for survival. ~Hubert H Humphrey
I jest. But still, Wellstone ‘24. Once the top 1% of the world’s top 1% have closed themselves off to all risk, we’ll all be fooked.
You rock, Brian. “if you chase the Surefire Mediocre, there is no risk.” Yeah, I guess, depending on your operational, definition of “risk.“ My sorely missed late dear friend, Joey T, was the chief data scientist at Starbucks headquarters in Seattle. He woulda dug this piece. And, again, I recommend to you the new book “Wicked Problems.“ There’s some stuff in there about multivariant regression analytics that makes me laugh like hell. I did a five-year stint in subprime credit risk analytics. I know a thing or two about modeling for the “surefire mediocre“ demographic, lol. We made successive record profits every year I was there. It was insane. I finally had to quit and went back to healthcare analytics. The subprime thing was just too jive. to wit: https://bgladd.blogspot.com/2008/12/tranche-warfare.html … by the way, if you want to check out the total opposite of surefire mediocre, google “Jacob Collier.“ Bring a snickers, you’re gonna be a while.
Hey Brian. Highly recommend https://www.amazon.com/Status-Culture-Creates-Identity-Constant/dp/0593296702 on this. Interestingly crosses over into your other essay on in / out groups and signalling.
One interesting take from David Marx on recent cultural dullness and repetition is the effect of low barrier to entry of culture due to internet etc. In some senses this has driven elites to remove themselves from status signalling via taking up new ideas. If anyone can access the signals of cultural status they (old money, professional class etc) are more likely to (unfortunately) return to financial signifiers. Correlation isn’t causation but at the same time of this cultural stasis we have seen a significant increase of inequality.
One other concept is the notion of Omnivore “Hypermodern liberalism and cosmopolitanism thus led to omnivoreism and poptivism- and even a detente w capitalism, as long as the spoils flow to the right people....cont....As w any value system, omnivores contains inconsistencies. The refusal to erect fences verse toward monoculture.”
He also gets into some deconstruction of Kant on aesthetics which highlights the break between the art in itself and it’s cultural & status seeking signifiers.
There is always hope for humans, it’s our apparent failures that drive creativity as much as the successes be it financial etc Identity politics need not be something that necessarily divides us to a miserable Hobbesian dystopia with a few tech bros and their VC handmaidens looking for the payday. When humanity itself and our life on this planet is at risk the next cultural movement might emerge and bring us together in a way we haven’t considered. I live in hope and am keeping eyes and ears open.