Donald Trump is deeply unpopular outside his base and is facing multiple criminal investigations that could land him in jail. But...he could also win the 2024 US presidential election. Here's how:
You are so on target with “The Land of Authoritarian Politics”! My constant dread is that so many people--smart people, good people, democratic pundits, major MSM editors and journalists, Biden himself (!) do not understand this. This seeking consensus with MAGA insurrectionists in Congress should not happen. Hell, we have a constitutional law on our books that states they must be kicked out of congress. We seem to just muddle along, day by infernal day, and let this happen until the authoritarians get their way because we have sought consensus and now we’re done. I’m 78 years old, and I’ve seen it happen to my parents in Europe, I’ve seen it in Hungary, it’s happening now in Israel, and they’re trying in Poland and Turkey. And we’re sitting complacently by and giving more airtime to McCarthy than to Jeffries. It’s infuriating.
Thanks for your insightful comment, Barbara! Yes, this is the central misunderstanding of US politics. People apply the old frame to understand a new problem. It doesn’t work. Then when it continues to not work, they grow puzzled, but still don’t jettison the old frame. I’m not trying to pat myself on the back, but I had the Land of Authoritarian Politics frame since 2015, and I’ve gotten a lot of the big stuff right (I predicted something like Jan 6 would happen, for example, in a May 2020 column for the Washington Post). It’s not because I’m some clairvoyant, but rather because I had the right frame to analyse the problem. I hope this article helps others see things that way too. Thank you for reading -- and for your support!
Thank you. Yes. And I’ve written on the intolerable twosideism in the MSM, starting in the 1980s, but I can only get likeminded people--and even then only some of them--to read what I write. I will share your article on my FB page to see if I can get you some more readers.
How long will it take for the Republican party to return to a center right party once more? What do you foresee in 2028? I want there to be some sort of post 45 era for the RIght.
I don’t have a crystal ball, sadly, but I do think a *decisive* Trump 2024 loss could help. As irrational as the party’s base has become, it’s willing to excuse narrow election defeats (especially due to election integrity lies) whereas a 20 point thrashing wouldn’t be easily dismissed. Unfortunately, it’s currently looking like it would be a close race.
Trump withdrawing from politics, or eventually being unable to actively participate in them would also help. So would him being jailed, if convicted, but that would create a moment of extreme radicalisation and probably violence (though my benchmark for prosecuting and jailing him is straightforward: if someone else did what he did, would they be prosecuted and jailed?).
The country needs two parties that believe firmly in democracy. I’m hopeful that will happen. But it’ll be a very dangerous period in the meantime -- and it will still take years, I’m afraid. This is why I spent so, so much time warning about him in 2016/2017. Once a party becomes authoritarian, there are ratcheting mechanisms of extremism. It can become authoritarian fast, but the reversal is one hell of a long, dangerous slog. Thanks for reading!
Great article! But what really grieves my heart is how the Evangelical Christian movement is so full of Trump loyalists. There voices are so loud in our Land of Authoritarian Politics. Our voices need to be much louder.
It is a baffling aspect of his appeal, yes. Interestingly, some of that wing of support actually violates the personality not policy mantra that defines much of his cult-like base. Instead, some with the Evangelical camp see him as a vessel to achieve longstanding policy goals, and they are willing to tolerate the personality to get it done. However, a lot of the self-branded evangelicals don’t really see the cognitive dissonance, I suspect, and embrace both personality and politics.
Always good to read you! The world as we know it will be doomed if Trump wins the next election, not only the US of A. I have a question. What about the true financial value of Trump? I remember once to have read about a loan (needing reimbursement!) from deutsche bank, approx 600 millions usd that may have come thru some russian mafia money. That story was quite quickly buried. Was is some conspiracy theory or what? Tks and have a nice day.
Hi Jack -- I’m not an expert on Trump’s finances, but he has a lot of assets and not always a lot of cash flow. As far as I can tell, his business is partly built on inflated valuations (hence the fraud investigations) and a need to get quick infusions of cash fairly regularly to maintain loans and so on. That’s why he’s doing stupid stuff like promoting Trump NFTs, and it’s also why he hasn’t returned to mainstream social media (he’s trying to bolster the revenues from Truth Social, and his exclusivity is the main draw for his political disciples). I think he does need money, though, and the campaign allows him to fundraiser to cover lots of expenses that would otherwise have to come out of his pocket. I hope that helps!
Nominating trump is an existential threat to our democracy. And nominating trump is all but certain due to the Authoritarian Movement formerly known as the Republican Party.
I was a lifelong R until 2016. I endorse every word of caution written & spoken by Brian Klaas.
Fantastic piece Brian; I’ll also be sharing to my friends, especially those who fall into the camp of disliking Trump the person but voting for Trump the candidate. Here’s what I wonder: what’s a scenario look like where Biden wisely decides not to run, and a true centrist--but one who speaks with a clarity and forcefulness capable of attracting the attention of potential Trump voters--comes into play? I couldn’t name that candidate offhand, but I’d love to think one exists. I’m a lifetime Democratic voter and I do think Biden has done a commendable job in office, but I’m not inclined to wait another four years under the shadow of Biden’s real or imagined doddering.
I agree with you on this -- Trump is viewed as ridiculous and dangerous by people outside the GOP, but nobody will paint him that way inside it. However, it won’t be easy. It’s currently political suicide to do so, and those who tried in 2016 saw their careers die.
The biggest shift would be Fox News. But they briefly dampened their enthusiasm in late 2022 after the midterms and realised it would cost them viewers. The extremist base drives everything these days. But I sincerely hope senior Republicans or major media moguls somehow have a stroke of courage.
The problem now, though, is that others in the party have remade themselves in Trump’s image. DeSantis morphed to be Trump-like because of the winds in his party. So it’s not just Trump, but the base, that has to change.
Hopefully, there will be more on the center right speaking out and be making the case as to why 45 should not have another chance. Pro center right forces have to start somewhere.
one thing I've never been able to figure out is how a pollster decides who is a Republican. Do they simply ask the person being polled? Do they go by voter registration? I suspect the form of the question varies from poll to poll.
Because what you can't get from a poll citing percentages is how many VOTERS the percentage represents. Is 40% of the number of people identified as Republicans in 2016 the same number as 40% of those identifying so today? Percent registered isn't reliable. For one thing, states like mine don't require party affiliation as part of voter registration. For another, there are people who would never dream of registering as independent, much less Democrat, for assorted reasons including family tradition. But how they VOTE in a general election--or even how they identify on policies (at any level) may not be the same.
Do you know of any reliable source of how MANY "Republicans" there actually are as compare to 2016?
"No Labels" seems to be a deeply conservative group aimed at splitting the Democratic vote. We can always hope that someone like DeSantis will be pissy enough after the primaries to start their own third party. Could we get some "Dark Money" folks to encourage that? Have at it, Soros & friends.
As someone less than two years younger than DeSantis, I am not worried about senility. I would be worried about physical illness. It lurks for all of us after we pass the "average lifespan" of Americans in general.
Do you think that there are people who support Trump because they want the war to end, or at least to have a ceasefire, with Ukraine having not won back lost territory? But dare not say it out loud? And are anxious about the direction that President Biden is taking the country? But who would have voted for Biden anyhow we’re it not for the war? Because they find Trump utterly loathsome? I am not one of these people; I vote Democratic no matter what. But I could understand if there were people who felt that way.
I doubt the war plays much of a role. Here’s the way I think about Trump: everyone knows what they think of him. They decided long ago whether they love him, hate him, or think he’s good because he a) makes the right people angry; or b) advances their preferred policies. Virtually nobody is persuadable around Trump after 8 years of him dominating national politics. So there’s basically nobody in the “hates him” camp who thinks “well, he’s awful, but I want the war to end more swiftly, so I’ll vote for him.” It’s just a turnout game: the race will largely be determined by the dynamics of which people vote, because persuasion won’t be as central to this race as it was in other past presidential elections.
There is something lurking beneath “the war” that is far more insidious, evil & deceptive. The war in Ukraine has been visited upon innocent people by a Strongman, the model and the stand-in of for the exact type leader MAGAholics crave.
I think they are a small group. The last two decades of US politics has produced a dwindling of “true independents.” In surveys, a lot of people say they are independents. If you ask questions differently, though, you discover they’re mostly partisans who just like thinking of themselves as independents. The war matters, of course, but I don’t think there are that many people who think that Trump was disastrous before but are willing to vote for him because of the war. He tends to sort people along pretty clear lines, and policy is not the biggest driver of vote choice (likewise, domestic politics dominates vote choice in all recent presidential elections, with perhaps the exceptions of post 9/11 votes).
You are so on target with “The Land of Authoritarian Politics”! My constant dread is that so many people--smart people, good people, democratic pundits, major MSM editors and journalists, Biden himself (!) do not understand this. This seeking consensus with MAGA insurrectionists in Congress should not happen. Hell, we have a constitutional law on our books that states they must be kicked out of congress. We seem to just muddle along, day by infernal day, and let this happen until the authoritarians get their way because we have sought consensus and now we’re done. I’m 78 years old, and I’ve seen it happen to my parents in Europe, I’ve seen it in Hungary, it’s happening now in Israel, and they’re trying in Poland and Turkey. And we’re sitting complacently by and giving more airtime to McCarthy than to Jeffries. It’s infuriating.
Thanks for your insightful comment, Barbara! Yes, this is the central misunderstanding of US politics. People apply the old frame to understand a new problem. It doesn’t work. Then when it continues to not work, they grow puzzled, but still don’t jettison the old frame. I’m not trying to pat myself on the back, but I had the Land of Authoritarian Politics frame since 2015, and I’ve gotten a lot of the big stuff right (I predicted something like Jan 6 would happen, for example, in a May 2020 column for the Washington Post). It’s not because I’m some clairvoyant, but rather because I had the right frame to analyse the problem. I hope this article helps others see things that way too. Thank you for reading -- and for your support!
Thank you. Yes. And I’ve written on the intolerable twosideism in the MSM, starting in the 1980s, but I can only get likeminded people--and even then only some of them--to read what I write. I will share your article on my FB page to see if I can get you some more readers.
How long will it take for the Republican party to return to a center right party once more? What do you foresee in 2028? I want there to be some sort of post 45 era for the RIght.
I don’t have a crystal ball, sadly, but I do think a *decisive* Trump 2024 loss could help. As irrational as the party’s base has become, it’s willing to excuse narrow election defeats (especially due to election integrity lies) whereas a 20 point thrashing wouldn’t be easily dismissed. Unfortunately, it’s currently looking like it would be a close race.
Trump withdrawing from politics, or eventually being unable to actively participate in them would also help. So would him being jailed, if convicted, but that would create a moment of extreme radicalisation and probably violence (though my benchmark for prosecuting and jailing him is straightforward: if someone else did what he did, would they be prosecuted and jailed?).
The country needs two parties that believe firmly in democracy. I’m hopeful that will happen. But it’ll be a very dangerous period in the meantime -- and it will still take years, I’m afraid. This is why I spent so, so much time warning about him in 2016/2017. Once a party becomes authoritarian, there are ratcheting mechanisms of extremism. It can become authoritarian fast, but the reversal is one hell of a long, dangerous slog. Thanks for reading!
Thanks Brian! Good point. They don’t see the cognitive dissonance.
Great article! But what really grieves my heart is how the Evangelical Christian movement is so full of Trump loyalists. There voices are so loud in our Land of Authoritarian Politics. Our voices need to be much louder.
It is a baffling aspect of his appeal, yes. Interestingly, some of that wing of support actually violates the personality not policy mantra that defines much of his cult-like base. Instead, some with the Evangelical camp see him as a vessel to achieve longstanding policy goals, and they are willing to tolerate the personality to get it done. However, a lot of the self-branded evangelicals don’t really see the cognitive dissonance, I suspect, and embrace both personality and politics.
Thanks!
Always good to read you! The world as we know it will be doomed if Trump wins the next election, not only the US of A. I have a question. What about the true financial value of Trump? I remember once to have read about a loan (needing reimbursement!) from deutsche bank, approx 600 millions usd that may have come thru some russian mafia money. That story was quite quickly buried. Was is some conspiracy theory or what? Tks and have a nice day.
Hi Jack -- I’m not an expert on Trump’s finances, but he has a lot of assets and not always a lot of cash flow. As far as I can tell, his business is partly built on inflated valuations (hence the fraud investigations) and a need to get quick infusions of cash fairly regularly to maintain loans and so on. That’s why he’s doing stupid stuff like promoting Trump NFTs, and it’s also why he hasn’t returned to mainstream social media (he’s trying to bolster the revenues from Truth Social, and his exclusivity is the main draw for his political disciples). I think he does need money, though, and the campaign allows him to fundraiser to cover lots of expenses that would otherwise have to come out of his pocket. I hope that helps!
Nominating trump is an existential threat to our democracy. And nominating trump is all but certain due to the Authoritarian Movement formerly known as the Republican Party.
I was a lifelong R until 2016. I endorse every word of caution written & spoken by Brian Klaas.
Fantastic piece Brian; I’ll also be sharing to my friends, especially those who fall into the camp of disliking Trump the person but voting for Trump the candidate. Here’s what I wonder: what’s a scenario look like where Biden wisely decides not to run, and a true centrist--but one who speaks with a clarity and forcefulness capable of attracting the attention of potential Trump voters--comes into play? I couldn’t name that candidate offhand, but I’d love to think one exists. I’m a lifetime Democratic voter and I do think Biden has done a commendable job in office, but I’m not inclined to wait another four years under the shadow of Biden’s real or imagined doddering.
I think other GOP have to attack 45 for the fever to stark breaking.
I agree with you on this -- Trump is viewed as ridiculous and dangerous by people outside the GOP, but nobody will paint him that way inside it. However, it won’t be easy. It’s currently political suicide to do so, and those who tried in 2016 saw their careers die.
The biggest shift would be Fox News. But they briefly dampened their enthusiasm in late 2022 after the midterms and realised it would cost them viewers. The extremist base drives everything these days. But I sincerely hope senior Republicans or major media moguls somehow have a stroke of courage.
The problem now, though, is that others in the party have remade themselves in Trump’s image. DeSantis morphed to be Trump-like because of the winds in his party. So it’s not just Trump, but the base, that has to change.
Hopefully, there will be more on the center right speaking out and be making the case as to why 45 should not have another chance. Pro center right forces have to start somewhere.
Belated question: How does the base change, exactly? How can they be weaned off extremist forces and return to the center?
one thing I've never been able to figure out is how a pollster decides who is a Republican. Do they simply ask the person being polled? Do they go by voter registration? I suspect the form of the question varies from poll to poll.
Because what you can't get from a poll citing percentages is how many VOTERS the percentage represents. Is 40% of the number of people identified as Republicans in 2016 the same number as 40% of those identifying so today? Percent registered isn't reliable. For one thing, states like mine don't require party affiliation as part of voter registration. For another, there are people who would never dream of registering as independent, much less Democrat, for assorted reasons including family tradition. But how they VOTE in a general election--or even how they identify on policies (at any level) may not be the same.
Do you know of any reliable source of how MANY "Republicans" there actually are as compare to 2016?
"No Labels" seems to be a deeply conservative group aimed at splitting the Democratic vote. We can always hope that someone like DeSantis will be pissy enough after the primaries to start their own third party. Could we get some "Dark Money" folks to encourage that? Have at it, Soros & friends.
As someone less than two years younger than DeSantis, I am not worried about senility. I would be worried about physical illness. It lurks for all of us after we pass the "average lifespan" of Americans in general.
Do you think that there are people who support Trump because they want the war to end, or at least to have a ceasefire, with Ukraine having not won back lost territory? But dare not say it out loud? And are anxious about the direction that President Biden is taking the country? But who would have voted for Biden anyhow we’re it not for the war? Because they find Trump utterly loathsome? I am not one of these people; I vote Democratic no matter what. But I could understand if there were people who felt that way.
I doubt the war plays much of a role. Here’s the way I think about Trump: everyone knows what they think of him. They decided long ago whether they love him, hate him, or think he’s good because he a) makes the right people angry; or b) advances their preferred policies. Virtually nobody is persuadable around Trump after 8 years of him dominating national politics. So there’s basically nobody in the “hates him” camp who thinks “well, he’s awful, but I want the war to end more swiftly, so I’ll vote for him.” It’s just a turnout game: the race will largely be determined by the dynamics of which people vote, because persuasion won’t be as central to this race as it was in other past presidential elections.
There is something lurking beneath “the war” that is far more insidious, evil & deceptive. The war in Ukraine has been visited upon innocent people by a Strongman, the model and the stand-in of for the exact type leader MAGAholics crave.
So you don’t think there are any Independents/undecideds out there for whom the war might push off the fence?
I think they are a small group. The last two decades of US politics has produced a dwindling of “true independents.” In surveys, a lot of people say they are independents. If you ask questions differently, though, you discover they’re mostly partisans who just like thinking of themselves as independents. The war matters, of course, but I don’t think there are that many people who think that Trump was disastrous before but are willing to vote for him because of the war. He tends to sort people along pretty clear lines, and policy is not the biggest driver of vote choice (likewise, domestic politics dominates vote choice in all recent presidential elections, with perhaps the exceptions of post 9/11 votes).