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Nick Carmody JD, MS Psych's avatar

Conspiracy theories are often cognitive dissonance reconciling narratives that simultaneously sustain the believer's narcissism, and sense of victimhood.

By believing in conspiracy theories, people allow themselves to embrace two cognitively dissonant ideas: Conspiracy theories satiate the conspiracy theorist’s narcissism by allowing them to believe that they are special, unique, smarter than everyone else, and hold membership in an exclusive “club” of “the knowing”…..while also justifying their grievance/resentment/victimhood because the conspiracy explains why, despite all their narcissistic grandiosity (special/unique/smarter than everyone else), they may have underachieved in life. Basically, conspiracy theories are often a cognitive dissonance-reconciling narrative that allow people to believe that they are special (narcissism), even if they’ve done nothing special in their life (victimhood…someone kept me down).

There's also a neuropsychological factor (neurotransmitter/dopamine) at play:

One of the overlooked factors of Qanon: there’s an interactive, crowd-sourcing component where people compete, receive a “reward” (dopamine) for being the *cleverest*, connecting the furthest dispersed dots, & for (most absurdly) advancing the “story” the furthest/quickest. Essentially, Qanon has become a multi-million player Dungeons & Dragons-like, choose your own adventure game that is metaphorically being played within the confines of a Doomsday cult-like “escape room”.

More:

Since dopamine production/release isn't maximized by correctly anticipating the outcome 100% of the time....in order to experience optimal dopamine production….people would need to constantly seek out new “sources” and new information that would consistently introduce "unanticipated"/unknown details in order for them to have a heightened dopamine experience......because being 100% correct doesn't produce that.

If someone watched FOX for decades, and had memorized the talking points….they would eventually be able to anticipate future narratives 100% of the time. This would produce a limited dopamine experience, even though their biases are completely confirmed.

However, when right wing news consumers then turn on OANN, Newsmax, Alex Jones, etc., and hear new fantastical details that are added to the mainstream right-wing narrative, these people's anticipation-to-reward ratio has now been disrupted.

And as Sapolsky demonstrated in the video above, this disruption will cause dopamine spikes that are optimized when people are not able to correctly predict or “anticipate” 50% of what they are being told.

This creates an incentive structure where they are “rewarded” by continually seeking out more extreme, more radical, and more delusional information and narratives in order to continually maintain the optimum 50/50, anticipation-to-reward ratio.

This process mirrors "tolerance" as seen in other forms of addiction, except that rather than building a tolerance to increased levels of an addictive substance, the individual builds a tolerance to the known (dis)information. And instead of having to increase the ingestion of an addictive substance to chase the “high", they need to continually increase the amount of new, un-anticipatable (dis)information.

This results in people perpetually seeking out more delusional, more fantastical, and more conspiratorial information because, eventually, anything remotely factual has already been heard, and therefore can be “anticipated”.

With this as a backdrop, it's easy to see how this dynamic plays into Qanon and conspiracies theories.

As Robert Sapolsky said, “’maybe’, is addictive like nothing else out there”.

“Maybe”, is the essence of conspiracy theories:

“Maybe, X is happening/occurring”...

The “anticipation” and the 50/50 optimization of dopamine production may explain why people aren't deterred when predictions, and the expectations created by those predictions, do not come true in cult situations or with Qanon.

Based on this model, the delusional, non-occurring predictions may actually reinforce belief in the conspiracy/cult because it supplies the necessary 50% "miss rate" needed for optimum dopamine production…...with the other 50% of perceived “accurately anticipated” events being the result of delusional subjective interpretations of events that create “false positive” confirmations.

Two articles that the above excerpts are explained in more detail:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/47160497

https://www.patreon.com/posts/52459012

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John Fredell's avatar

If you’re interested in this conspiracy theories, in addition to Richard Hofstadter’s “Anti Intellectualism in American Life”, I would recommend reading “Conspiracy Theories” by U of Florida law professor Mark Fenster.

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