From M&M's to leaky fire hydrants, there are lessons to be learned for how to test systems to expose weaknesses and create resilience. But we rarely do it.
Re Van Halen, not a stupid concern. The fatal Radiohead stage collapse in Toronto, a few miles from where I live, was the fault not of the band but of the promoters, or more precisely their designers and contractors.
Once again, thanks for writing and posting! I look forward to reading them!
Incidental, I think, to your main point, I think Enron's failure was more of the broader Wall Street culture than of a particular system. (Though the pressures on audit partners, which led to the extinction of Arthur Anderson, was barely addressed. But that's a rant for a different time. :-)
One of the most interesting things about Enron's collapse was smart money didn't invest in Enron. Basic analysis of their mandatory financial statements, a non-exotic skill I was taught in business school, showed that their financials were the stuff of shadows. Enron's stock price had been drifting downward for some time, largely because IIRC their cashflow statement didn't stand up to much scrutiny. The failure here was a kind of madness-of-crowds thing, where Enron had such an awesome story, and such awesome promoters of that story, that enough folks in the stock market and related markets continued to buoy up the company.
The "unexpected" collapse of W. R. Grace (perhaps before your time) was a case in point. It was before my time, too, but an analysis of its financials--which showed it was doomed--was a case study for my B-school days in the late '80s.
Another rant I'll avoid, it's why I think shortsellers are the heroes of the stock market.
Again, thanks so much for taking the time to write these posts.
I really liked the quote from your grandfather "Avoid catastrophes". That is exactly why governments evolved in the first place, and it is still their main (only?) job today. I am not sure that we can just blame politicians for the current instability, but maybe you mean that we can blame them for not doing their job to deal with the crises. To me, the stories of testing you tell are really about thinking more like a scientist (a la Adam Grant, Think Again). In that case, you might be interested in a new book by Geoff Mulgan 'When Science meets Power'. I started reading it and he clearly explains among other things the different mental worlds of politics, science and bureaucracy, how they intersect, and hopefully how the walls between these mental worlds can be breached (I am not there yet). In his introduction, he does call for more scientization of politics but also more politicization of science, the latter not meant as advocacy (that would be wrong) but as engaging with politics as they really are, not the idealized purely fact-based version scientists have in their heads. Food for thought, me thinks.
Brian, I will never listen to Van Halen in the same way! I have a new found respect! But it is so true, sloppiness. I see it everyday in matters that affect the lives of people in the ways that people only see in the most extreme of circumstances.
Re Van Halen, not a stupid concern. The fatal Radiohead stage collapse in Toronto, a few miles from where I live, was the fault not of the band but of the promoters, or more precisely their designers and contractors.
Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiohead_stage_collapse
Once again, thanks for writing and posting! I look forward to reading them!
Incidental, I think, to your main point, I think Enron's failure was more of the broader Wall Street culture than of a particular system. (Though the pressures on audit partners, which led to the extinction of Arthur Anderson, was barely addressed. But that's a rant for a different time. :-)
One of the most interesting things about Enron's collapse was smart money didn't invest in Enron. Basic analysis of their mandatory financial statements, a non-exotic skill I was taught in business school, showed that their financials were the stuff of shadows. Enron's stock price had been drifting downward for some time, largely because IIRC their cashflow statement didn't stand up to much scrutiny. The failure here was a kind of madness-of-crowds thing, where Enron had such an awesome story, and such awesome promoters of that story, that enough folks in the stock market and related markets continued to buoy up the company.
The "unexpected" collapse of W. R. Grace (perhaps before your time) was a case in point. It was before my time, too, but an analysis of its financials--which showed it was doomed--was a case study for my B-school days in the late '80s.
Another rant I'll avoid, it's why I think shortsellers are the heroes of the stock market.
Again, thanks so much for taking the time to write these posts.
I really liked the quote from your grandfather "Avoid catastrophes". That is exactly why governments evolved in the first place, and it is still their main (only?) job today. I am not sure that we can just blame politicians for the current instability, but maybe you mean that we can blame them for not doing their job to deal with the crises. To me, the stories of testing you tell are really about thinking more like a scientist (a la Adam Grant, Think Again). In that case, you might be interested in a new book by Geoff Mulgan 'When Science meets Power'. I started reading it and he clearly explains among other things the different mental worlds of politics, science and bureaucracy, how they intersect, and hopefully how the walls between these mental worlds can be breached (I am not there yet). In his introduction, he does call for more scientization of politics but also more politicization of science, the latter not meant as advocacy (that would be wrong) but as engaging with politics as they really are, not the idealized purely fact-based version scientists have in their heads. Food for thought, me thinks.
😂 I really loved the final sentence! Thank you for that
Brian, I will never listen to Van Halen in the same way! I have a new found respect! But it is so true, sloppiness. I see it everyday in matters that affect the lives of people in the ways that people only see in the most extreme of circumstances.