I deeply appreciate the depth and care of your posts, and especially this one. Thank you. You speak well about “fragile democracy”. I live in Southern California (Ventura County) and now that the fragility of our political system is so glaringly obvious, I see that same fragility even in the way neighbors react to one another. There’s a wariness in simple social exchanges, even at the grocery store, or in waiting rooms. It’s a sad and awkward way to live. I am gingerly trying to find a way to regain my openness to others. You wrote about the “relentless hammering” against norm violations that chip away at democratic institutions. It’s painful to see how some people I know are accepting of it. It has led to a cautiousness and reluctance to engage that wasn’t there before. Anyway, I thank you for your valuable insights. It means a lot to me as we move through this time.
I’m glad it’s helpful - and thanks for the kind words, Deborah. I know what you mean - the US feels darker and more on edge in many ways than it did in my childhood. But I am optimistic in the medium term: there are ways out of crisis, but the next four years are likely to be difficult. I’ll write a post about effectively navigating them, sometime in the coming weeks.
Brian, thank you for the timely reminders. We are in unprecedented times and I would argue far more dangerous than the US Civil War era because of the nature of information and disinformation flows. I do wonder what would happen if Trump were to do this in the US? Would people react? Would it trigger immediate violence and war? I fear we are too comfortable and decadent as you have noted.
Thanks, Paul - I think you’re right that democratic institutions are at unprecedented risk because of the scale of how broken information pipelines have become. I am more optimistic about levels of violence (I think political violence is sadly likely to feature over the next four years, but I more think of a slew of isolated acts of violence).
Fine points, Paul. This: "... far more dangerous than the US Civil War era..."
Civil War era had demagogues maneuvering a largely rural, often poorly informed and educated populace into participating in a war that was of no benefit to them personally, only mattered to the wealthy....
The American public is more distracted now by the trivial ( 'The Masked Singer'), more thoroughly inflammed....saturated with misinformation; with links that prove that, in fact, 'it's all true': hydroxychloroquine,2000 mules, jewish space lasers, trump's business acumen, that largely peaceful Jan6 gathering...
One part of America is very angry with another part of itself; more angry than at any time since that Civil war. (As in South Korea) a wannabe authoritarian has been narrowly chosen. Again.
A plethora of mythinformation; a distracted and provoked populace; a lot of guns.
I fear that Brian's concerns about violence over the next 4 years are well founded.
The key is lots of guns. And that now can work in both directions. What can cool things down are a small cadre of R in the Senate and House that see the danger and have courage. But I am not seeing that happen. Misinformation is rife and as Twain noted, lies travel faster than truth and facts.
I needed this post most definitely! You gathered most of my frazzled threads and wove them together into an understanding of what I’ve been witnessing for some time now. Thank you for seeing what happened and is happening so succinctly and clarifying my observations.
"The United States is and long will remain a presidential system, warts and all." I wish I had your confidence in that. I don't think Trump will be able to resist crowning himself a king.
Brian, being both a follower and subscriber to “The Garden of Forking Paths”, and to Substack, I found it upsetting that when I clicked on the Juan Linz for “The Perils of Presidentialism” and started reading that after the bait was taken I was ask to “purchase or rent” the page 51-69. Sneaky and incomplete referencing from a boy from Hopkins MN. How embarrassing for your readers to discover that you have melded money and politics! What would will the folks from Lake Wobegone be thinking?
I’m not sure if yours is a serious critique or not, but I can’t bypass paywalls for academic articles! Take it up with the totally broken system of academic journals.
This siloing of academics talking to each other in cumbersome/specialized gibberish and closely held journals/dearly expensive books is a long running pet peeve I hold. It is why I find your writing…in Fluke and this Substack…so refreshing and valuable.
Yes, in authoritarian regimes, it’s easier to just crush opposition. But at a certain level, protests always work if they are sufficiently large and relentless. They just have to be big and sustained enough to be un-crushable, even in autocracies (see the Arab Spring)
Thanks for this helpful analysis. I'm a liberal and I'm very concerned about how the finger pointing at Trump as a "fascist" may be impairing our vision. Many believe that Biden's pardon of his son had less to do with drugs, and much more to do with his own illicit dealings with foreign governments for profit. It feels to me more like both "sides" are "fascist," just in different ways. Dark times.
Thank you, Brian. In my latest episode of WW II Baby Substack I talked about how I will respond in the wake of the recent elections. I hoe all your readers will take your words as an invitation to think about how they will react in the coming months and years.
I deeply appreciate the depth and care of your posts, and especially this one. Thank you. You speak well about “fragile democracy”. I live in Southern California (Ventura County) and now that the fragility of our political system is so glaringly obvious, I see that same fragility even in the way neighbors react to one another. There’s a wariness in simple social exchanges, even at the grocery store, or in waiting rooms. It’s a sad and awkward way to live. I am gingerly trying to find a way to regain my openness to others. You wrote about the “relentless hammering” against norm violations that chip away at democratic institutions. It’s painful to see how some people I know are accepting of it. It has led to a cautiousness and reluctance to engage that wasn’t there before. Anyway, I thank you for your valuable insights. It means a lot to me as we move through this time.
I’m glad it’s helpful - and thanks for the kind words, Deborah. I know what you mean - the US feels darker and more on edge in many ways than it did in my childhood. But I am optimistic in the medium term: there are ways out of crisis, but the next four years are likely to be difficult. I’ll write a post about effectively navigating them, sometime in the coming weeks.
Brian, thank you for the timely reminders. We are in unprecedented times and I would argue far more dangerous than the US Civil War era because of the nature of information and disinformation flows. I do wonder what would happen if Trump were to do this in the US? Would people react? Would it trigger immediate violence and war? I fear we are too comfortable and decadent as you have noted.
Thanks, Paul - I think you’re right that democratic institutions are at unprecedented risk because of the scale of how broken information pipelines have become. I am more optimistic about levels of violence (I think political violence is sadly likely to feature over the next four years, but I more think of a slew of isolated acts of violence).
Isolated violence is optimistic, in my opinion. I see too many signs that signal something quite different.
Fine points, Paul. This: "... far more dangerous than the US Civil War era..."
Civil War era had demagogues maneuvering a largely rural, often poorly informed and educated populace into participating in a war that was of no benefit to them personally, only mattered to the wealthy....
The American public is more distracted now by the trivial ( 'The Masked Singer'), more thoroughly inflammed....saturated with misinformation; with links that prove that, in fact, 'it's all true': hydroxychloroquine,2000 mules, jewish space lasers, trump's business acumen, that largely peaceful Jan6 gathering...
One part of America is very angry with another part of itself; more angry than at any time since that Civil war. (As in South Korea) a wannabe authoritarian has been narrowly chosen. Again.
A plethora of mythinformation; a distracted and provoked populace; a lot of guns.
I fear that Brian's concerns about violence over the next 4 years are well founded.
The key is lots of guns. And that now can work in both directions. What can cool things down are a small cadre of R in the Senate and House that see the danger and have courage. But I am not seeing that happen. Misinformation is rife and as Twain noted, lies travel faster than truth and facts.
"Lots of guns":47% of all guns on the planet owned by civilians are owned by American civilians. So, the kindling is def. there
And most of those gun-owning civilians voted for Trump. Doesn’t bode well for a New Civil War.
Plenty of liberals have guns and know how to use them. The trope that they don't is right wing disinformation.
I needed this post most definitely! You gathered most of my frazzled threads and wove them together into an understanding of what I’ve been witnessing for some time now. Thank you for seeing what happened and is happening so succinctly and clarifying my observations.
"The United States is and long will remain a presidential system, warts and all." I wish I had your confidence in that. I don't think Trump will be able to resist crowning himself a king.
Brian, being both a follower and subscriber to “The Garden of Forking Paths”, and to Substack, I found it upsetting that when I clicked on the Juan Linz for “The Perils of Presidentialism” and started reading that after the bait was taken I was ask to “purchase or rent” the page 51-69. Sneaky and incomplete referencing from a boy from Hopkins MN. How embarrassing for your readers to discover that you have melded money and politics! What would will the folks from Lake Wobegone be thinking?
I’m not sure if yours is a serious critique or not, but I can’t bypass paywalls for academic articles! Take it up with the totally broken system of academic journals.
This siloing of academics talking to each other in cumbersome/specialized gibberish and closely held journals/dearly expensive books is a long running pet peeve I hold. It is why I find your writing…in Fluke and this Substack…so refreshing and valuable.
I don’t want to debate to loudly but you might have footnotes rather then linked the article.
Any take, Brian, on Georgia’s EU crisis? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/05/georgia-opposition-leader-nika-gvaramia-arrested-mass-anti-government-protests-?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other.
Wife’s response, “Mass protest did not work for the youth in Hong Kong.” Apples/oranges?
Yes, in authoritarian regimes, it’s easier to just crush opposition. But at a certain level, protests always work if they are sufficiently large and relentless. They just have to be big and sustained enough to be un-crushable, even in autocracies (see the Arab Spring)
Thanks for this helpful analysis. I'm a liberal and I'm very concerned about how the finger pointing at Trump as a "fascist" may be impairing our vision. Many believe that Biden's pardon of his son had less to do with drugs, and much more to do with his own illicit dealings with foreign governments for profit. It feels to me more like both "sides" are "fascist," just in different ways. Dark times.
Thank you, Brian. In my latest episode of WW II Baby Substack I talked about how I will respond in the wake of the recent elections. I hoe all your readers will take your words as an invitation to think about how they will react in the coming months and years.